Putin and Xi Challenge US Leadership – The Cipher Brief

OPINION — You can never count Russia out. More than three years after Vladimir Putin’s failed blitzkrieg on Kyiv, Moscow is proving it still has plenty of punch on the world stage as Putin continues to pursue his brutal war on the conventional battlefields of Ukraine and expand his war of sabotage, propaganda, and political action against the United States and its allies around the world.

Last week, at a Chinese military parade, Putin confirmed that he can stand shoulder-to-shoulder with Chinese President Xi Jinping and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. The symbolism is unmistakable: an emerging authoritarian axis, flexing its muscles in open defiance of the United States. What’s more, Putin and Xi are working to pit countries like India, Türkiye, Brazil and other “non-aligned states” against Washington.

Washington would like to see Putin as an isolated pariah — sanctioned, weakened, irrelevant. Nothing could be further from the truth. Russia may not be a superpower on its own — its military is degraded; its economy ranks only 11th in the world and Moscow’s war in Ukraine is grinding down the Kremlin’s already limited financial reserves. But Russia, in its weakened state, is an increasingly important ally and source of cheap natural resources for the People’s Republic of China.

Chinese leadership also benefits from Russia’s aggressive anti-Western actions because they keep Washington and Brussels distracted and unable to focus on countering the growing threat that China presents to the U.S. and its allies. Make no mistake: Beijing is using Moscow to advance its own global ambitions.

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The military partnership between the two countries is deepening. Russia and China recently conducted joint naval drills in the Sea of Japan, staged their first-ever joint submarine exercises, and launched coordinated naval patrols in the Pacific. This is happening in the very waters where the U.S. and its allies — Japan, the Philippines, and Taiwan — face the greatest danger of conflict with China.

Economically, Beijing has become Moscow’s lifeline. Cut off from the West by sanctions, Russia has turned to China for trade, technology, and energy sales. China’s share of Russia’s foreign trade nearly doubled between 2021 and 2023, accounting for more than a third of Russia’s foreign trade by 2024. Beijing is buying up Russian oil, propping up its industries, and collaborating on sensitive technologies with direct national security implications.

The tech partnership is especially troubling. China itself is fast becoming a tech powerhouse, with its corporate giant Huawei already dominating the vital global 5G market. A strengthened Russia-China technology axis would present an even greater challenge to the United States — not just commercially, but strategically.

Of course, the growing intelligence cooperation between Beijing and Moscow is a key component of the alliance’s efforts to advance each country’s economic, technological, and military capabilities while undermining the U.S.

There are ways to push back.

The Trump administration’s recent approval of the Hewlett Packard Enterprise–Juniper Networks merger, reportedly encouraged by the U.S. intelligence community, was a key move to ensure America has its own 5G champions to compete with Huawei. But economic competition alone won’t be enough.

We must recognize what China and Russia are building: an authoritarian bloc hostile to American leadership. These countries don’t always get along — Beijing and Moscow themselves have plenty of sore spots and each country is weary and paranoid about the other’s long-term ambitions to dominate the other.

Unfortunately, for now, both share an affinity for authoritarian government and a hostility toward the United States that are motivating both to overcome or overlook their concerns about one another to counter the U.S.

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Beijing is clearly the senior partner in this relationship. Unlike during the Cold War, when China tilted toward Moscow, today Russia leans south toward Beijing’s gravitational pull and is increasingly economically dependent on Beijing. Together, they are expanding influence in Africa, Latin America, and even wooing countries like India as they work to weaken the American-led system that has preserved peace and prosperity in the world for decades.

The United States must get serious about this challenge. America needs to strengthen its own alliances and intelligence-sharing relationships. It needs to engage in tough global economic competition especially on tech. It needs to see the Russia-China relationship for what it is: a burgeoning bloc that seeks to displace the American-led global system that has kept the peace for decades while allowing the U.S. to thrive.

The question is who will set the rules of the 21st century: a U.S.-led coalition of free nations or an authoritarian axis led by Beijing with Moscow at its side. How the United States responds to this axis will determine nothing less than who wields global power in the twenty-first century and the type of world our children and grandchildren live in – in the years to come.

All statements of fact, opinion, or analysis expressed are those of the author and do not reflect the official positions or views of the US Government. Nothing in the contents should be construed as asserting or implying US Government authentication of information or endorsement of the author’s views.

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