U.N. warns of 57% increase in risk of cataclysmic wildfires by 2100

The United Nations has assessed for the first time the global risk of catastrophic wildfires, finding that as climate change accelerates more of the world will burn — with disastrous consequences for human health, the economy and biodiversity.

“The heating of the planet is turning landscapes into tinderboxes, while more extreme weather means stronger, hotter, drier winds to fan the flames,” wrote the authors of the report, released Wednesday by the U.N. Environment Program and the nonprofit GRID-Arendal. “Too often, our response is tardy, costly, and after the fact, with many countries suffering from a chronic lack of investment in planning and prevention.

“This must change,” the report added. “Wildfires need to be placed in the same category of global humanitarian response as major earthquakes and floods.”

The report forecast that the risk of cataclysmic wildfires could increase as much as 57% by the end of the century, depending on temperature rise. “Even with the most ambitious efforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions, the planet will still experience a dramatic increase in the frequency of extreme fire conditions,” it stated.

Over the past decade, the intensity and impact of wildfires has grown worldwide — with 2020 a particularly devastating year that seemed to herald the arrival of an apocalyptic new era.

That year began with continent-wide bush fires in Australia that killed an estimated 3 billion animals, including many endangered species, and burned rainforests previously thought impervious to fire. The disaster was preceded by a long drought and occurred during above-average temperatures that magnified the effects of the bush fires, according to the report.

Meanwhile, fires broke out in the Arctic as a heat wave hit the region. California suffered a series of megafires in 2020 that burned through vast forests and suffocated cities with toxic smoke.

The growth in wildfires will, in turn, exacerbate climate change as burning forests and vegetation release carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Wildfires pose a particular danger to rainforests and peatlands that store huge amounts of carbon.

“Wildfires may accelerate the positive feedback loop in the carbon cycle, making it more difficult to halt rising temperatures,” according to the report.

Humans are contributing to that feedback loop through deforestation in places like Indonesia, where land clearing for palm oil plantations and other agriculture has ignited carbon-intensive peatlands. Worldwide, peatlands contain a large share of the carbon stored in soil.

At the same time, the researchers found that the use of land for intensive agriculture in regions of China, India, Europe, the United States and South America has suppressed wildfires. Likewise, incidents of wildfire in Africa have fallen as grassland savannas become fragmented.

The United Nations recommended that nations invest more resources into reducing fire risks and making communities more resilient to wildfires and the health effects of smoke. The report also called for incorporating indigenous fire management practices and increasing international cooperation.